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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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