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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.